TV market trends in 2018 and forecast for 2019

At the first section of “Television as business” conference, which took place on September 19 at KYIV MEDIA WEEK 2018 international media forumIgor Polosmak, TV Investment Director at Razom Communication holding, presented the data about key events at TV market in 2018, their consequences, and the forecast for the following year. So what are the critical events and what are we to expect?  

For this year, there were four essential events: exclusion of ATO zone from the measurement panel in January; Football World Cup broadcasting in June and July which attracted advertisers and ensured temporary growth for the market; analogous broadcasting switched off in Kyiv and Kirovohrad region and then all over Ukraine which, on the contrary, caused a drop in viewing. As for the numbers: Polosmak quoted a drop of 3 percent during the switchover while some industry representatives, for example Dmitry Dutchin, director and sales and strategic development at Inter-reklama sales house, believes that it was just 1 percent. In general, the drop in TV viewing for the year will amount to about 9 percent, and in the following year, according to Dutchin, 5 percent. 

The average ranking continues decreasing and high soldout (about 90 percent) is observed while the number of advertisers grows – by about 2 percent in six months. In 2019, there will be 5 percent more of them – i.e., the market is restoring.   

Still, average viewing share remains the lowest among European countries, and for now nobody is ready to significantly raise the prices for advertisers. So, on the one hand, it is profitable to invest in advertising in Ukraine, but the size of investments doesn’t really differ from the previous numbers for now. As for the key drivers of media market growth in general, they are TV and digital segment. The advertising market will probably grow by 20 to 25 percent.   

The drawback of the coming 2019 is the possible satellite coding of Ukrainian media groups. This can of course be postponed yet again, but Polosmak believes that it should be expected in spring. Most probably the coding would have happened even this fall but for the switchover – according to estimates, in that case the loss in audience would have amounted to 5 to 10 percent for the TV channels.